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25-Dec-2017 19:49

Phillips: Only a foolish social scientist predicts the future. The most firm prediction we can make is that as the religious demography of Utah comes to resemble the religious demography of a typical state, the church activity of Utah Mormons will come to resemble the church activity of Mormons in a typical state. The good news is that those who stay are staying largely because they are personally committed to the cause. With respect to the sex ratio imbalance, there is preliminary evidence that women’s patterns of religious apostasy are beginning to resemble those of men.Latter-day Saints in the “mission field” are fond of saying that where Mormons are a small minority, one must stand on one’s own testimony. If this is true generally, it will probably be true within Mormonism.Associates at work, school, and in the community are also likely to be co-religionists in this setting.This fuses church and community norms, and makes violating church standards subject to disapproval and sanction in non-church settings.And this contributes to a rising sex ratio disparity among Utah Mormons that doesn’t manifest elsewhere.

Just as women outnumber men in conservative denominations, men substantially outnumber women among those abandoning religion. Also, this trend in religious disaffiliation is most pronounced among young people in their late teens and early 20s, which is a datum that is important to remember.Traditionally, this has provided added incentive for Utah Mormons with marginal personal religiosity to remain in the church, and to follow church behavioral mandates.However, as Mormon majorities in Utah have declined, the salience of this religious subculture is waning.We began to investigate sex ratios in the church when we compared data from two large censuses of religious bodies, one conducted in 1990 and the other in 2008.

The data show that between these two censuses, the proportion of self-identified Latter-day Saints that were female increased rather dramatically … Outside Utah and Mormon strongholds in the Intermountain West, sex ratios within the church remained stable, and were closer to parity than in Utah.The stigma of failing to serve a mission in some Utah towns was severe, and had serious social consequences.



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